Perttu Yli-Opas, Aurora Propulsion Technologies
Perttu Yli-Opas, CEO, Aurora Propulsion Technologies
Reaching the target of net-zero debris requires the whole space ecosystem to be built around robustness.
In this paper, we conduct a thorough analysis of the long-term sustainability of in-orbit operations from different perspectives, including not only the technical but also regulatory, financial, and commercial aspects. We approach the topic from these different perspectives and analyze the state-of-the-art and potential future developments, building an overall picture of how the whole ecosystem could work, from the perspectives of different actors. These actors include space agencies, governments, large corporations, small businesses, research organizations, universities and non-profits, including open source developers. The aim is to build a baseline view of the net-zero debris future which can then be adapted based on actual advancements in the industry. Since single predictions will likely not be accurate, the model describes a robust ecosystem where an equilibrium state can be established and directed by regulators to reach the target of net-zero debris. Each stakeholder’s incentives are analyzed as a crucial step in building the equilibrium state where deviations by single parties or technologies are corrected by the ecosystem. This game-theoretic approach is of paramount importance in reaching the targets in the real world where each actor has different targets and priorities. Different strategies of debris mitigation and remediation are considered, with existing models for financing them analyzed from different perspectives. Commercial viability of different actors are also touched upon in the different scenarios, with the target of maximizing the long-term return-on-investment of the whole space industry, requiring effective but low-overhead regulation as well as standardized (either de jure or de facto) solutions to the core problems, allowing for the economy of scale to kick in.
To reach a net-zero debris, the core technical problems to be solved are space debris mitigation (disposal, collision avoidance and prevention of breakup) to minimize the generation of debris, combined with Active Debris Removal (ADR) to remove an equal amount of debris as is being generated. The cost overhead of ADR is high, and so high-reliability mitigation measures are important. Current disposal measures (deorbiting with a thruster or other method requiring the satellite to be functional) can’t not only reach high reliabilities but also create a conflict of interest between continuing satellite operation versus disposing of it while it is still functional. Similarly, the collision avoidance infrastructure requires solutions that allow automated management of the maneuvers, requiring major changes in the way many satellites are operated. In-orbit servicing and related technologies are taken into account, but their impact on the necessity of other solutions is small. Core technologies required in the long term are highlighted, along with an attempt to identify their most important features. Similarly, core models of operation are identified for mission operators, building on the view of the whole ecosystem.